AFFORDABILITY,
HOUSING SHORTAGES
AND THE COMING POPULATION BOOM

BY GEORGE BOUGIAS, NATIONAL HEAD OF RESEARCH, OLIVER HUME

Housing affordability and dwelling shortages back to centre stage

The combined issues of housing affordability and dwelling shortages are once again emerging as key issues for the property industry, policy makers and the broader community.

Recent cyclical and relatively short-term movements in the property market – where we’ve moved from boom to moderation to a rebound again – have dominated discussion in recent years.

To an extent, the attention on the property cycle has overshadowed the larger and more important long-term question of how we adequately provide housing for a rapidly growing and changing population.

The human element

Although these are issues which I tackle every day in a professional setting it was on a recent trip to Sydney that I was reminded of the human element that is often ignored by some planners and even industry “experts”.

On checking out of my hotel the receptionist asked if I was returning home or continuing to travel. I answered I was returning home to Melbourne and a brief conversation ensued about the relative merits of both cities.

Of course, as a real estate economist the discussion invariably led to the property market and I mentioned that while both cities had seen robust price and rental growth in recent years, Melbourne was relatively more affordable.

“Indeed…. renting is so expensive in Sydney” came theresponse.

I was momentarily left speechless.

Of course, I was thinking about the cost of buying but was reminded, again, of the burgeoning number of renters. And, if buying property is increasingly difficult for many first home buyers, renting must be too, as more people compete in the increasingly expensive rental market.

Demand and supply

While taxation, lending and other factors might play a role, simple economics points to the fact that price, and therefore affordability, is first and foremost an issue of demand and supply.

Given that population growth is expected to remain reasonably strong for the foreseeable future, the need to maintain affordability by ensuring an adequate level of new dwellings over the medium to long term across all product types (houses, townhouses and apartments) is of paramount importance.

Unfortunately, current and emerging trends suggest housing supply may deteriorate further before it improves.

Building approvals continue to fall sharply highlighting the extent of the residential construction slowdown.

The recent release of the UDIA Victoria’s Residential Development Index suggests we will face an undersupply of new housing over the next 18-24 months.

Victorian dwelling building approvals declined by 21% to around 59,700 in 2018-19. This was down from around 75,600 in 2017-18 and follows an estimated shortfall of around 6,800 dwellings delivered in 2018-19.

Similarly, vacancy rates remain low.

In metropolitan Melbourne the vacancy rate was 2.2% most recently and has remaine below 3% (the estimated equilibrium rate) for several years.

Regional Victoria’s vacancy rate was even lower (1.3%) highlighting the strength of population growth and underlying housing demand in non-metropolitan areas.

Furthermore, growth in the number of active bonds held in Victoria continues to moderate (the number of active bonds is a gauge of the rental housing stock).

The total number of active bonds in Victoria at the end of the June quarter 2019 rose by only 2.1% on an annual basis – the lowest increase since late 2002 and below the growth in the rental market over the last decade.

Similarly, rental growth continues to outstrip inflation
especially in regional Victoria where rents continue to
increase at a rapid rate.

There is no one commonly accepted definition of a housing shortage (or an affordability crisis) but the few statistics cited above suggest we could face a range of challenges in accommodating a growing population.

However, where there are challenges, there is also opportunity.

For investors, a tightening property market bodes well for capital and rental growth over the medium to long-term.

Importantly, population growth is forecast to remain robust /=requiring a sizeable number of new dwellings every year.

The Victorian Government’s population forecasts suggest the state will need around 66,000 to 68,000 new dwellings every year.

The state is projected to add 4.7 million people from 2018 to 2056 reaching a population of 11.2 million.

Most of this growth is expected to occur in Greater Melbourne with the region’s population projected to grow by around 4.0 million people (from 5.0 million in 2018 to 9.0 million in 2056).

Way Forward

Many of our capital cities and towns are faced by major challenges in the housing market including a lack of affordable housing. This problem is especially acute in areas where people want to live close to where they work.

Some commentators have labelled the current situation an affordability crisis and one which, over the short-term at least, could deteriorate as new housing supply fails to provide for underlying demand.

In Victoria, as in many other jurisdictions, a growing population could mean that, over the medium to long term, affordability could continue to worsen.

This is likely to coincide, if not directly lead to, several other issues including further falls in home ownership rates and increase in the distances travelled between home and work.

It is likely that solving the affordability challenge will require a range of approaches and tools including those that involve greater collaboration between industry and government.

Addressing the housing supply question, however, is likely to be a key part of the puzzle.

Of course, other solutions, including more and better transport infrastructure and employment and businesses being located closer to where people can afford to live, will also be important.

It won’t be easy but if we focus first on having an adequate number of new dwellings in the right locations to cater for our burgeoning population it will mean we are on the way to something truly worthwhile – making the great Australian dream possible for as many Australians as possible.

“George Bougias is an economist, adviser and strategist specialising in real estate. He is the National Head of Research for Oliver Hume Corporation, one of Australia’s leading residential property funds and real estate services groups, and leads the firm’s in-house strategic research team. George has extensive experience across both private and public sectors, analysing and advising on Australia’s diverse property markets for government, private real estate developers and corporate and institutional clients. During his time in government George served as an advisor to the Innovation Economy Advisory Board (the Victorian State Government’s highest economic advisory body) and as an economist in the Department of Treasury and Finance and Department of State Development (Victorian State Government). He is a graduate of the University of Melbourne with a Bachelor of Commerce (Honours), majoring in economics, and a Bachelor of Arts, majoring in political science.”

支付能力、住房短缺 和即将到来的人口激增

作者:GEORGE BOUGIAS, 澳利富产集团 (OLIVER HUME)RESEARCH国家研究部主管

住房支付能力和住房短缺再次成为人们关注的焦点

住房支付能力和住房短缺的综合问题再次成为房地产行 业、政策制定者和更广泛社区关注的关键问题。

房地产市场近期的周期性和相对短期的波动(从繁荣走向下 坡再回弹)已成为近年来讨论的热点。

在某种程度上,对房地产周期的关注掩盖了一个更大、更重 要的长期问题:如何才能为快速增长和不断变化的人口提 供充足的住房。

人为因素

虽然这些都是我在工作中每天要处理的问题,但在最近一次 去悉尼的旅行中,有人提醒我这个问题中的人为因素。

在酒店办理退房的时候,接待员问我是回家还是继续旅行。我回答说我要回墨尔本,然后我们就两个城市各自的优点进 行了简短的交谈。

当然,作为一名房地产经济学家,讨论总是会回到房地产市 场上来。我提到说,虽然这两个城市近年来的房价和租金都 涨势强劲,但墨尔本的房价相对便宜一些。

“确实,悉尼的房租太贵了。”接待员这么回我。

我一时无语。

我当时考虑的其实是购房的成本。但接待员提醒了我,租房者的数量正在飞速增加。而且,如果对许多首次购房者来说,买房变得越来越难,那么租房也是一样的,因为有越来越 多的人在租赁市场上抢夺房源。

需求与供应

虽然税费、贷款和其他因素可能也有一定的影响,但简单的经济学指出了这样一个事实,即价格和支付能力之间的问 题,首先是需求和供应的问题。

鉴于在可预见的未来,人口增长的势头预计仍将相当强劲。因此,最重要的一点是确保中、长期内都有足够数量的新住房,以维持居民的支付能力。新住房还得涵盖所有房产类 型,包括住宅、联排别墅和公寓。

但不幸的是,目前和新兴趋势表明,住房供应的问题在有所 改善之前可能会进一步恶化。

建筑批准数量继续大幅下滑,突显住房建设放缓。

最近发布的UDIA Victoria住宅开发指数表明,在接下来的18-24个月内,我们将面临新住房供应不足的问题。

在2018-2019年,维多利亚州的住宅建筑批准数量下降了21%,约为59,700套。这一数字低于2017-2018年的约75,600套。而预计在2018-2019年交付的住房缺口约为6,800套。

同样地,住房空置率仍然很低。

在维多利亚州,大都会墨尔本最近的空置率是2.2%,并且几 年来一直保持在3%(估计的均衡率)以下。

维多利亚州局部地区的空置率更低(1.3%),突显了非大都 市地区人口增长的势头和潜在的住房需求。

此外,维多利亚州内持有的活跃债券数量增长继续放缓(活 跃债券数量是衡量出租房屋存量的一个指标)。

截至2019年6月底,维多利亚州的活跃债券总数仅同比增长2.1%,是2002年底以来的最低增幅,且低于过去十年租赁市 场的增幅。

同样地,租金涨势持续高于通货膨胀率。特别是在维多利亚州地区,当地租金持续快速上涨。

对于住房短缺(或支付能力危机)没有一个普遍接受的定义,但上面引用的少数统计数据表明,我们在适应不断增长的人口数量时,可能会面临一系列的挑战。

不过,机遇与挑战并存。

对投资者而言,房地产市场趋紧对中长期的资本增值和租金上涨来说都是一个好兆头。

重要的是,预计人口增长将保持强劲势头,每年都需要大量新住房。

维多利亚州政府的人口预测显示 ,该州每年将需要约66,000至68,000套新住房。

从2018年到2056年,该州预计将增加470万人,人口数量将达到1,120万。

这一增长主要发生在大都会墨尔本,该市人口预计将增长约400万(从2018年的500万增到2056年的900万)。

下一步工作

许多首府城市都面临住房市场的重大挑战,其中就包括缺乏经济适用房的问题。在人们希望住在工作地点附近的地区,这个问题尤为严重。

一些评论家将当前的情况称为”支付能力危机”,随着新住房供应无法满足潜在需求,这种情况可能会在短期内恶化。

维多利亚州与其他许多司法管辖区一样,人口的增长可能意味着支付能力会在中长期内进一步恶化。

这个问题很可能与其它几个问题同时出现(如果前述问题不是后面几个问题的直接诱因),包括住房持有率进一步下降以及住所地与工作地点之间距离增加。

要想解决支付能力的问题,可能需要一系列的方法和工具,其中需要行业和政府之间进行更紧密的合作。

但是,解决住房供应问题可能是这个难题的关键环节。

当然,其他解决方案也很重要,包括更多、更优质的交通基础设施、就业机会和距离人们工作地点更近的住房。

这并非易事,但如果我们先在合适的地点建立足够数量的新住房,以此容纳蓬勃发展的人口数量,就意味着我们正朝着真正有价值的方向迈进,那就是让尽可能多的澳大利亚人实现伟大的澳大利亚梦。

ABOUT OLIVER HUME PROPERTY FUNDS

Oliver Hume Corporation is one of Australia’s most reputable residential property funds and real estate services groups.For over 60 years, they have helped owner-occupiers and investors achieve their property and investment goals. Oliver Hume Property Funds manages high-quality property developments, with strong profit and return forecasts founded upon quality research and backed by an extensive, thorough and rigorous due diligence process. By bringing investors together and pooling their capital, they can achieve a critical mass they can’t always reach individually. Investors can access large scale residential property developments and attractive returns without the stresses and uncertainties of doing it themselves. For more information go to: www.oliverhumepf.com.au 澳利富产集团(Oliver Hume)公司是澳大利亚最出名的住宅房地产基金和不动产服务集团。60多年来,公司帮助业主和投资者实现他们的房地产和投资目标。澳利富产集团(Oliver Hume)房地产基金以高品质管理房地产开发项目,通过质量研究,以及广泛、彻底和严格的调查过程,实现高收益和高回报。通过对投资者及其资金进行聚集,公司可达到仅凭自己永远无法达到的规模。投资者也能够借此参与大规模住宅房地产开发并获取诱人的回报,且不会遇到自行投资所 面临的压力或意外。获取更多相关信息,请访问:www. oliverhumepf.com.au